A hand recently came up at a $2-$5 NL game. A VERY intoxicated player had $3k in front of him. I sat down late in the game and missed tremendous action. (So I’m told.) When the pot had $40 in it, he bet $200 on a K 7 Q board. He got looked up by KJ, and I commented to the caller how he made a BIG call. He said to me, “You haven’t been here all night.”
Ok, I get it. Now….
Mr. 14 drinks gets up to leave, and racks his chips. He gets dealt his last hand, and WITHOUT LOOKING AT HIS CARDS, he declares, ”I’m all in. You wanna call? Call.”
We are 6-handed.
The last man to act shows KTo and is sitting with $800. He folds.
Here’s the question….DO YOU?
If you call an all-in bet with KTo against a random hand your chances of winning are approx 59% and your chances of losing are approx 39%, with about a 2% chance of a tie. So you are about a 3 to 2 favorite. If you assume an $800 all-in bet then your expected value is about $160. That’s the amount you would win per bet if you were to run this experiment over and over again.
Is your decision based on the amount of money it costs to call, or based on the fact that long-term EV doesn’t apply here since your opponent is leaving after the hand?
If it is based on the dollar value, then how much would have made you call? Would it matter if you were having a winning/losing session? Most importantly, SHOULD IT MATTER?
Hmmm…either way, buy shoes!