Proper  poker strategy often involves finding the right answers to the  wrong questions, as a query from a reader about streaking  revealed.

I received an email the other day from a reader inter ested in knowing whether I believed in "streaks" or not. H e wasn’t referring to the 1970s phenomenon of grown men running through a public area buck naked. He was asking about streaks of good or bad cards in poker, specifically Texas hold 'em.

He went on  to opine that it was crazy to ignore them, since in his  experience there clearly were times when he was running good  or running bad. What he wanted to know was how to recognize  when those times began and when they were about to end, and  what to do about them.

Interesting.   Before the skeptic in you dismisses this out of hand as  superstitious rubbish, let me tell you that many thoughtful,   smart, and otherwise good poker players have told me that  they believe that there are streaks that can both be predicted  and exploited at the poker table. Similarly, there are smart  people and many books on craps and roulette that espouse the  same theory: that there are "hot" tables, "cold" tables,   and "rocky" tables that go back and forth from being hot to  cold.

So  I took his question seriously. So should you, as I’ll  demonstrate.

First  of all, there certainly are streaks in poker. Yes,   absolutely there are streaks. There are periods that range  from a few hands to a few hours to even a few days or months,   when players have an unusual run of good cards or an unusual  run of bad cards. It’s statistically provable. Get out a  copy of Turbo Texas Hold Em if you don’t believe me.   Run 10,000 hands with player profiles that are identical.   Compare the results of the players after 10 hands, 100  hands, 1,000 hands and 10,000 hands. Are they always the  same? Does one player seem to have an edge for the first 10  hands? How about after each additional interval? The player  who is doing better than all others is on a statistical   "lucky streak" for whatever that interval is. He is doing  better not because of better play (since all players are  identical) but because of better luck.

You  can corroborate that with your own playing history if you  like. Just keep track of every starting hand you’re dealt,   whether in live games, online poker games, or in hands you  deal out for yourself. Divide the list of hands into groups  of 10 hands. Compare the groups. Are some better than others?   Are any unusually good or bad? Those are streaks.

So  streaks exist. The question is, Can they can be exploited?   The answer to that is also yes -- but perhaps not as people  commonly think.

Here’s  the problem. There is no way to know whether your streak is  just starting or just ending. No way to know whether it will  be long or short. No way, in fact, to know whether your  next hand is likely to be better than average or worse than  average.

Again,   I go back to all of those books on craps and roulette that  rattle on about hot tables and cold tables. Many  superstitious gamblers believe in the predictability of  streaks. They believe that if a table has been good for the  shooter and all right bettors that it will continue to be so.   Other gamblers also believe in the predictability of streaks,   but view them somewhat differently: They think that if there  has been a long trend then it is likely that it will reverse  itself. Ah, the complexity of it all. If the roulette wheel  has hit red 10 times in a row, some believe that means that  another red is more likely; others believe that a black is  more likely since the wheel must inevitably average itself out  and start hitting black.

Both  of these theories are ridiculous. The wheel, the dice, the  cards have no memory. They don’t know what came before or  what will come after. And no player can predict the outcome  of the next hand or the next throw or the next roll with any  more than a random chance of being right.

So  that points to the uselessness of using streaks to your  advantage, no? But I said that they are useful. Let me  explain further.

There  are two reasons that streaks are useful. First of all, even  though you know that there’s no point in using them to predict  the outcome of the next hand, other players are not so smart.   Many players, in fact, believe that if someone is "running  good" that they will continue to "get lucky" and be more  likely to hit their hands in the future. This means that you  can exploit their impression of you.

Here’s  an example. Imagine that you’ve won three of the last five  hands or so: You seem to be "on a rush." You’re in middle  position and it’s checked to you. You have a pair of 5s. Go  ahead and raise three or four times the big blind. Normally  you would probably call. But since you’re on a rush and stand  a chance of intimidating people, go ahead and try for the  pot. At the very least you’re likely to buy the button and be  last to act; a large advantage for you.

Similarly,   you might want to call more with borderline hands if you  think that your newly-enhanced image might intimidate a player  into folding if you bet on the flop. You should be more likely  to try an over-the-top bluff or semi-bluff if your image is  favorable, too. Folks may well be less likely to challenge  you, in light of your winning streak.

Of  course you can’t do this indiscriminately. Some players have  the opposite reaction to players who have won a few hands in a  row or many hands in the past hour. They figure, like the   "don’t come" bettors in craps, that your luck is bound to  change. And your more sophisticated opponents might figure  that you’re just playing your rush by becoming more aggressive  than your cards dictate. So they’re more likely to call you  down. You must match your play to the opponents you face.

Streaks  are only apparent in retrospect. You know when you’ve had a  run of good or bad fortune. But they can’t be predicted.   There’s no way to know whether they’re about to start, end,   or continue. But they do exist. And your opponents may well  react to them. To the extent that they do, you can use their  reaction to your advantage as your streaks can get your  opponents to act in a predictable and therefore exploitable  way.