Whenever all the cards are dealt and you’re the last player to act, it pays to call if your chances of winning exceed the odds the pot offers you.  If you figure to win once in three times when the pot offers 5-to-1 odds, calling pays regardless of whether you win that particular hand or not.  It’s the long run that matters in poker, not the outcome of any given hand.

But on earlier betting rounds, when there are still more cards to be dealt, more players to act, and more betting rounds, it’s difficult to know precisely how much it will cost to try and make your hand since you can never be sure how the betting will proceed or how many opponents will stick around and pay you off if you make the winning hand.

That’s where implied odds come into play.  Implied odds are the ratio of what you should win (including money likely to be bet in subsequent rounds) to the cost of a current bet. They’re really a form of reckoning, since one never knows how much money will be wagered on future betting rounds.

Implied odds are affected by a number of factors. They’re better when your hand is hidden because your opponents might not realize what you have and pay you off with lesser hands.  That’s why a set—a pair in your hand matching one of that rank among the community cards—is usually more profitable than a pair on the board that matches a third card of that rank in your hand.

Betting structures affect implied odds too.  Pot-limit and no-limit games, with their potential for huge wagers, offer greater implied odds than fixed-limit games.

Your opponents’ playing styles can also increase or reduce implied odds.  Players who call but seldom bet or raise increase implied odds because you can draw inexpensively against them, knowing all the while you’ll get paid off if you make your hand.

The amount of money already in the pot is another reason you might want to continue playing a hand even when you’re not the favorite. Here’s an example.  If you flop a four-flush, the odds are 1.86-to-1 againstnot favored to win the hand, you are still a money favorite.  In other words, even if you win just once every three times you find yourself in that situation, it pays to draw as long as the pot promises to return two dollars or more for each dollar you have to pay to draw to your flush.

completing your hand. You might even make your flush and still lose.  Even though you are

While there are always caveats that might cause you to deviate from these suggestions, here are three rules of thumb to think about when you’re considering the pot odds/implied odds relationship.

-If you are a money favorite on new money—forget about any money already in the pot—bet or raise to build the pot.  If you’ve flopped a flush draw, are last to act, and four players have already called, go ahead and raise; you’re getting 4-to-1 on new money entering the pot.

-If you are a money favorite because of the size of the pot along with any implied odds you think will accrue if you make your hand, calling is usually the best option.  If you ignore the fact that raising may allow you to win the pot by causing your opponents to fold, raising reduces your implied odds.

- If you have neither pot odds, nor implied odds, and are not a money favorite, fold and save your money.

When Oscar Wilde wrote, “The truth is rarely pure, and never simple,” he wasn’t thinking about a poker game, but his words ring true nonetheless.  While it’s easy to come up with reasons to deviate from these rules of thumb on occasion, the fact remains that the relationship between pot odds, implied odds, the odds against making your hand, and money that’s already in the pot will go a long way toward answering that age-old poker conundrum: Shall I fold, bet, call, or raise?

 

 

Visit Lou Krieger online and check out all his books at www.loukrieger.com.  You can read his blog at http://loukrieger.blogspot.com and write directly to him at loukrieger@aol.com.